Local Distribution Factors and Sampling Effort Guidelines
for the Rare Frosted Elfin Butterfly
Jason T. Bried, Jenny E. Murtaugh, and Amanda M. Dillon
Northeastern Naturalist, Volume 19, Issue 4 (2012): 673–684
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2012 NORTHEASTERN NATURALIST 19(4):673–684
Local Distribution Factors and Sampling Effort Guidelines
for the Rare Frosted Elfin Butterfly
Jason T. Bried1,2, Jenny E. Murtaugh3, and Amanda M. Dillon1,*
Abstract - Callophrys irus (Frosted Elfin) is threatened under New York State conservation
law and has fewer than 5 secure populations within the state. Published research on
these populations is needed to support the development of a state recovery plan and monitoring
program for the species. We assessed the relationship between adult occupancy
(patch use) in the Albany Pine Bush Preserve and a suite of potential controlling factors.
We then used the results in a simulation framework to quantitatively inform how many
sites and surveys are needed for Frosted Elfin occupancy monitoring. Patch use was best
explained by a model that assumed the same occupancy probability for each patch. The
species was more likely to use patches with limited shrub cover and greater host plant
density, yet showed a good chance (≥76%) of using even the smaller patches (<1 ha) with
relatively sparse density (<1000 ramets ha-1). Detection probability depended primarily
on observer and survey date, ranging from 0.34 to 0.94 among observers and from 0.35
to 0.96 across surveys. In the worst-case scenario (i.e., low detectability and low intrinsic
occupancy rate), minimum effort for adult Frosted Elfin occupancy monitoring in habitat
similar to the Albany Pine Bush may require at least 20 habitat patches surveyed 6 times
each or at least 10 habitat patches surveyed 8 times each. Less effort (e.g., 10 sites × 4
surveys) will likely suffice if surveys are restricted to the period of peak abundance. Adult
occupancy (or patch use) is probably the most efficient state variable for monitoring
Frosted Elfin populations, and changes in detection-corrected occupancy rate or proportion
of area occupied could be useful for conservation planning .
Introduction
Callophrys irus Godart (Frosted Elfin) is a small and inconspicuous brown
lycaenid butterfly. It is univoltine and non-migratory and, although it has a broad
geographic distribution, occurs in small, localized populations, many of which
are declining (NatureServe 2009, Schweitzer et al. 2011). The Frosted Elfin is
one of a suite of specialist disturbance-dependent lepidopteran species threatened
by degradation of disclimax and early successional habitat in the northeastern
United States (Wagner et al. 2003). Where their distributions overlap, it has similar
habitat requirements to the federally endangered Lycaeides melissa samuelis
Nabokov (Karner Blue) and the phenologically similar Erynnis persius persius
Scudder (Persius Duskywing) (Schweitzer et al. 2011, Shapiro 1974, Wagner et
al. 2003). Compared to these two species, the Frosted Elfin has a much broader
geographic range, spanning nearly 15 degrees of latitude.
1Albany Pine Bush Preserve Commission, 195 New Karner Road, Albany, NY 12205.
2Current address - Department of Zoology, Oklahoma State University, 501 Life Sciences
West, Stillwater, OK 74078. 3New York State Department of Environmental Conservation,
Bureau of Wildlife, Wildlife Diversity Unit, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233.
*Corresponding author - adillon@albanypinebush.org.
674 Northeastern Naturalist Vol. 19, No. 4
Historically, the Frosted Elfin was distributed from southern Canada and the
northeastern United States, south to Florida, and west to Texas and Wisconsin.
Frosted Elfin may have been most widespread in the Great Lakes region and from
southern New England down the coast and into the Carolinas, with scattered
populations westward. It is now probably extirpated from Canada, Maine, and
Illinois, and is listed as special concern, threatened, or endangered in 11 states
(NatureServe 2009); see Brock and Kaufman (2003) for a contemporary range
map. The same factors that have led to decline of the Karner Blue, including fire
suppression and loss of historical habitat, are also having adverse effect on the
Frosted Elfin (Pfitsch and Williams 2009, Smallidge and Leopold 1997, State of
New York Endangered Species Working Group 1994).
Frosted Elfin is threatened under New York State conservation law and has
fewer than 5 major occurrences or viable populations within the state (NY Natural
Heritage 2009). At least in New York, the species has generally different host plant
requirements between its coastal and inland populations. The Lupinus perennis L.
(Wild Lupine, hereafter “lupine”)-feeding variety is found in xeric and open, disturbance-
dependent habitats in the upper Hudson Valley, with concentrations in the
Albany Pine Bush and the Saratoga Sandplains. However, small populations also
persist in Oneida and Genesee counties and on Long Island. Baptisia spp. (Wild
Indigo) feeders are found primarily on Long Island, but also occur in the lower
Hudson Valley (NY Natural Heritage 2009). The indigo feeder has suffered from
the same factors (fire suppression, habitat loss) as the lupine feeder and was probably
also greatly reduced by Lymantria dispar dispar (L.) (Gypsy Moth) spraying
in the late 1950s (State of New York Endangered Species Working Group 1994).
There has been some speculation that 2 species are involved, but some authorities
(e.g., Schweitzer et al. 2011) continue to recognize a single species.
There is scant published information on lupine-feeding Frosted Elfin (Swengel
1996), and the only substantial studies in the Northeast focused on the indigo
feeder (Albanese et al. 2007, 2008). Research is needed on New York populations
to support the development of a state recovery plan and monitoring program for
the species (NY Natural Heritage 2009, State of New York Frosted Elfin Recovery
Team 2011). There is a lack of fundamental information, including which
factors may be influencing local population dynamics. In this study, we assess
the relationship between adult occupancy (patch use) in an urban pine barrens
preserve and a suite of potential controlling factors. We then use the results in a
simulation framework to quantitatively inform how many sites and surveys are
needed for Frosted Elfin occupancy monitoring. Occupancy is the most basic
population state variable and is gaining popularity for conservation programs
thanks in large part to advances in statistical methodology over the past decade
(MacKenzie et al. 2002 and subsequent papers).
Field Site
The Albany Pine Bush Preserve (42°42'N, 73°52'W, elevation 79–110 m) is
located in east-central New York State between the cities of Albany and Schenectady
(Fig. 1). The area is characterized by a cold-temperate humid climate, and the
2012 J.T. Bried, J.E. Murtaugh, and A.M. Dillon 675
preserve sits upon the single largest parabolic dune field in the northeastern United
States (Barnes 2003). Preserve land (≈1300 ha) is highly fragmented yet contains
one of the world’s largest remaining inland areas of barrens, thickets, and forests
dominated by Quercus ilicifolia Wang. (Scrub Oak), Q. prinoides Willd. (Dwarf
Chestnut Oak), and Pinus rigida Mill (Pitch Pine). Other major community types
include semi-natural grassland, Acer rubrum L. (Red Maple) swamp, Appalachian
oak-pine forest, and successional hardwood forest (APBPC 2010, Barnes 2003).
The landscape is intensively managed using controlled burns, seed collection and
plantings, mechanical treatments, and herbicides (APBPC 2010, Bried and Dillon
2012, Bried and Hecht 2011, Malcolm et al. 2008), and protects several dozen species
of rare and declining shrubland birds, herpetofauna, and Lepidoptera (Barnes
2003, Gifford et al. 2010, Hunsinger 1999).
Methods
Butterfly survey
Twenty-eight sites were chosen (Fig. 1) from more than 55 lupine patches
currently found on preserve land. To ensure spatial coverage of the landscape,
approximately 75% of patches in each Karner Blue management unit were randomly
selected. Karner Blue management units are scattered across the preserve
and each includes a single lupine patch or group of patches in proximity to each
other. No other criteria were used in selecting study sites.
Figure 1. Location of study sites (lupine patches) in the Albany Pine Bush Preserve of
east-central New York State.
676 Northeastern Naturalist Vol. 19, No. 4
Sites were divided into 3 groups of 8–10 sites each, with observers and starting
sites randomly assigned to each group. With each survey, observers were rotated
among the groups, and the site order rotated within each group. Three observers
completed the first 2 surveys on 6 and 10 May 2011, and 3 new observers did 4
more surveys on 20, 25, 27, and 31 May 2011. The 10-day gap from the second
to third surveys was due to an extended period of adverse weather. Surveys took
place on partly sunny to clear days reaching at least 18 °C.
Search routes followed a fixed zigzag pattern throughout each site, with observers
walking at a slow and steady pace. The observer stopped once Frosted
Elfin presence was confirmed or the site was fully traversed. Observers were
trained in Frosted Elfin identification by experienced biologists, and used closeup
photographs to help distinguish it from co-occurring and similar-looking
elfins (Callophrys henrici (Grote & Robinson) [Henry’s Elfin], Callophrys niphon
(Hübner) [Eastern Pine Elfin], Callophrys augustinus (Westwood) [Brown
Elfin]). All wildflower and shrub species in bloom were noted at each site during
each survey.
Local distribution modeling
We used the single-season occupancy modeling framework of MacKenzie
et al. (2002, 2006) to compare local distribution factors while controlling for
detectability. This approach uses a logit link function to flexibly incorporate
variable effects (covariates) thought to influence occupancy and detection probabilities.
Covariates for the occupancy parameter (ψ) included primary habitat
type, management history (3 metrics), lupine density (2 metrics), nectar richness
(2 metrics), shrub cover, and patch area (Table 1); the remaining factors in
Table 1 were used as detectability (p) covariates. We also tested the combined
effect of weather variables, p(temperature + wind speed + sky cover), the quadratic
or peak effect of patch size, ψ(area + area2), and the interaction of time
since planting and mowing, ψ(planting × mowing). All modeling was done using
PRESENCE v3.1 (Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, United States Geological
Survey, Laurel, MD).
It was difficult to develop ecological hypotheses and associated models given
the lack of information on Frosted Elfin occupancy dynamics. We therefore took
an exploratory approach and first modeled the potential nuisance (detection) effects
one at a time while holding occupancy constant, including the null model
(no covariates, constant ψ and p) for reference (see also Bailey et al. 2004, Bried
and Pellet 2012). We used Akaike’s information criterion adjusted for small
samples (AICc) to rank the models (Burnham and Anderson 2002). Retaining the
top detectability covariate and any competing covariates (those with ΔAICc < 2.0;
Burnham and Anderson 2002), we then ran a second set of models to compare
each occupancy effect. We found no evidence that the global models (those with
the greatest number of parameters) were a poor fit to the data (following the
method of MacKenzie and Bailey 2004), and therefore assumed that any reduced
models were also valid (see p. 112 in MacKenzie et al. 2006). To control for
wide-ranging data and facilitate numerical convergence, patch area and lupine
density were standardized to unit mean and variance prior to an alysis.
2012 J.T. Bried, J.E. Murtaugh, and A.M. Dillon 677
Sampling design tradeoffs
We evaluated competing designs for Frosted Elfin occupancy monitoring using
the Single-season Occupancy Study Design Assistant (SODA v0, written by
G. Guillera-Arroita). This software program uses simulations to help evaluate the
tradeoff between site and survey replication (Guillera-Arroita et al. 2010). To find
a worst-case number of sites (S) and surveys (K), we used the lowest detectability
estimate from the best occupancy-detection model as input for SODA. Because
the intrinsic occupancy rate in the Albany Pine Bush was high (i.e., Frosted Elfin
was observed in 23 out of 28 study sites) and may not be representative of other
recovery areas, we repeated the simulations across a gradient of occupancy rates
(80%, 50%, 20%) to improve generality of the results.
Depending on the project requirements, SODA allows the user to prioritize
between maximizing estimator quality (minimize variance) or minimizing total
effort (Guillera-Arroita et al. 2010). Here the simulation goal was to minimize
total effort based on estimator quality (precision) for various combinations of S
Table 1. Covariates used to model occupancy (patch use) and detection probabilities of Frosted
Elfin imagos in the Albany Pine Bush Preserve, New York State.
Factor Definition and measurement
Date t, variation across surveys
Habitat type 3 categories = Scrub Oak barrens, former (Black Locust) Robinia pseudoacacia
L. clone, or other (old field, powerline corridor, mixed woods, restored
parking lot)
LupineA (1) ramet density, (2) greater than or less than 2.6 ramets m-2
Management Years since (1) Black Locust removal, (2) planting or interseeding, (3) last
mowing
NectarB (1) mean number of plant species in flower per survey, (2) cumulative number
of plant species in flower
Observer Six people rotating among three site groups
Area Estimated area of the lupine patch
Shrub cover Greater than or less than 16% total cover of woody species <2.5 m height (see
Albanese et al. 2007)
Sky cover Clear (<5% of survey time under cloud cover), mostly sunny (5–33%), partly
sunny (33–66%), mostly cloudy (66–95%), overcast (>95%)
Temperature Mean recorded for 3 min using a Kestrel® 2000 Pocket Weather Meter
Time of day Start time (nearest minute) of a site survey
Wind speed Mean recorded for 3 min using a Kestrel® 2000 Pocket Weather Meter
AEstimated using complete census, restricted random sampling, complete random sampling, or
adaptive cluster sampling. Complete census was used in the smallest patches and involved a direct
count of ramets (defined at the soil surface) throughout the site. The 3 sampling designs included
30-m long transects with lupine counts taking place in a 2-m strip (for sites with sparse lupine)
or in 0.5-m2 quadrats placed every meter (for sites with dense lupine). Restricted random transect
placement was used at small (less than 0.5 ha) or narrow-elongate sites, and complete random placement
at larger sites. Adaptive cluster sampling was used to estimate abundance of geographically rare
and clustered lupine populations (Bried 2012). All lupine sampling was done in one growing
season over 2007–2011, except for two sites sampled in 2005. The threshold (2.6) comes from
Albanese et al. (2007), who found Wild Indigo density to explain the most variation in adult
Frosted Elfin density.
BRichness was counted in two ways: 1) any forb or shrub species, and 2) only the species believed
by the New York recovery team to be most important for the Karner Blue.
678 Northeastern Naturalist Vol. 19, No. 4
and K. Assuming a maximum employable effort of 40 sites × 12 surveys during
the Frosted Elfin flight period, we found root-mean square errors (RMSE) of the
occupancy estimator for all combinations of S = {10, 20, 30, 40} and K = {4, 6,
8, 10, 12}, running 1000 simulations for each scenario. Lower RMSE indicates
greater expected precision for the occupancy estimator.
Results
Detection probability was most strongly influenced by observer and survey
date (Table 2), which together captured 94% of the model weight. The probability
ranged from 0.34 to 0.94 among observers, and was high (>0.9) during the first two
surveys before dropping significantly (<0.5) during subsequent surveys (Fig. 2).
We therefore used the combined effect of observer and survey date to account for
detectability variation in each model of Frosted Elfin patch use.
The best model of Frosted Elfin patch use assumed the same occupancy
probability for each patch and captured nearly 40% of the overall model weight
(Table 2). The next best models included the effects of shrub cover and host-plant
Table 2. Occupancy-detection model comparison for two sets of models, where AICc is the model
Akaike Information Criterion for small samples, ΔAICc is the absolute difference in AICc with the
best model, w is the model weight, and K is the number of parameters.
Model setA AICc ΔAICc w K
Detection factors (with occupancy fixed across patches)
Observer 156.70 0.00 0.573 3
Date 157.57 0.87 0.371 7
Wind speed 162.11 5.41 0.038 3
WeatherB 163.56 6.86 0.019 5
Temperature 174.59 17.89 0.000 3
Sky cover 179.61 22.91 0.000 3
Constant (fixed across surveys) 182.40 25.70 0.000 2
Time of day 184.23 27.53 0.000 3
Habitat type 186.18 29.48 0.000 4
Occupancy factors (with best detection factors, observer and da te)
Constant (fixed across patches) 159.17 0.00 0.391 8
Shrub cover 162.30 2.59 0.107 9
Lupine 1 (density) 162.66 2.95 0.089 9
Lupine 2 (threshold) 163.11 3.40 0.071 9
Management 2 × 3 163.47 3.76 0.060 9
Management 3 (mowing) 163.74 4.03 0.052 9
Nectar 1 (mean richness) 163.75 4.04 0.052 9
Management 2 (planting) 163.94 4.23 0.047 9
Management 1 (locust removal) 163.99 4.28 0.046 9
Area 164.08 4.37 0.044 9
Area + area2 164.56 4.85 0.035 10
Habitat type 168.10 8.39 0.006 10
Nectar 2 (cumulative richness) 191.27 31.56 0.000 9
ANumerals after lupine, nectar, and management correspond to the alternate measurements in Table 1.
“Management 2 × 3” tests an interaction between time since planting and time since mowing.
BIncludes the additive effect of temperature, sky cover, and wind speed.
2012 J.T. Bried, J.E. Murtaugh, and A.M. Dillon 679
abundance (ΔAICc < 4). As expected, the estimated occupancy probability was
lower at sites above the shrub-cover threshold (0.73) than at sites below it (0.92).
Also as expected, the probability was higher at sites above the lupine density
threshold (0.91) than at sites below it (0.77), and climbed steadily with increasing
density across sites (Fig. 3). The remaining occupancy covariates received
minimal to no support (ΔAICc ≥ 4).
We used the lowest estimated detection probability from the minimum adequate
model, ψ(constant)p(observer + date), as input for SODA; the occupancy
probability for this model was 0.822 (0.072 SE). Based on simulations, low
Figure 2. Relationship of adult Frosted Elfin detectability to observers and surveys in the
Albany Pine Bush Preserve.
Figure 3. Relationship between adult Frosted Elfin patch use and host plant density in the
Albany Pine Bush Preserve.
680 Northeastern Naturalist Vol. 19, No. 4
RMSE (e.g., <0.01) was achieved for many of the designs (Table 3). The greatest
step gains in precision (i.e., largest decreases in RMSE between consecutive
effort levels) for the occupancy estimator were achieved with increases from 10
to 20 sites and 4 to 6 surveys. Improvements were negligible (ΔRMSE < 0.004)
for increases in effort beyond 30 sites × 8 surveys. With greater occupancy rate,
the effort requirements reduce and tradeoffs become less important (Table 3).
Discussion
Adult Frosted Elfin patch use in the Albany Pine Bush was best explained
by a model that assumed the same occupancy probability for each patch. This
result suggests that the Frosted Elfin’s local distribution may be largely invariant
of patch characteristics, consistent with expert opinions that the species has
less stringent habitat demands than other rare and declining lepidoptera of early
successional barrens and shrublands (State of New York Frosted Elfin Recovery
Team 2011). Because the null model was the minimum adequate model, it is possible
that none of the measured factors contributed anything significant to our
understanding of variation in Frosted Elfin patch use. However, based on heuristic
interpretation of the model weights (see p. 79 in MacKenzie et al. 2006), there
was less than a 40% probability that this model was “best”. Adding the weight
of evidence for shrub cover and lupine abundance, the probability jumps to 66%,
which suggests these factors are worth considering.
Larval food plant abundance is generally critical to butterfly population dynamics
(Singer 1972). Prior to this study, the state recovery team speculated that
lupine abundance is less important to the Frosted Elfin than it is to the Karner
Blue. Lupine may indeed be a key factor driving Karner Blue patch-use dynamics
in the Albany Pine Bush (Bried and Pellet 2012). The current study indicates
that lupine abundance contributes to Frosted Elfin’s local distribution, with the
Table 3. Root-mean square errors for the occupancy estimator under competing design parameters
(K = number of surveys, S = number of sites), assuming a worst-case detection probability of 0.29
coupled with a gradient of intrinsic occupancy rates (ψ ).
K
Simulation input S 4 6 8 10 12
ψ = 0.80, pˆ = 0.29 10 0.0368 0.0270 0.0217 0.0188 0.0167
20 0.0272 0.0165 0.0108 0.0096 0.0090
30 0.0203 0.0113 0.0077 0.0061 0.0061
40 0.0160 0.0087 0.0060 0.0050 0.0044
ψ = 0.50, pˆ = 0.29 10 0.0922 0.0564 0.0323 0.0279 0.0286
20 0.0467 0.0202 0.0164 0.0138 0.0127
30 0.0302 0.0153 0.0100 0.0093 0.0089
40 0.0203 0.0102 0.0074 0.0068 0.0070
ψ = 0.20, pˆ = 0.29 10 0.2497 0.1498 0.0722 0.0476 0.0359
20 0.1641 0.0619 0.0228 0.0176 0.0116
30 0.0914 0.0265 0.0096 0.0080 0.0056
40 0.0528 0.0125 0.0064 0.0049 0.0037
2012 J.T. Bried, J.E. Murtaugh, and A.M. Dillon 681
estimated occupancy probability about 15% higher at patches containing greater
than 2.6 ramets m-2. Notably, this threshold was derived from a study on density
classes of coastal plain indigo feeders (see Albanese et al. 2007) rather than occupancy
status of inland lupine feeders. Additionally, the occupancy probability
was at least 76% across a broad range of lupine densities (Fig. 3) and patch sizes
(mean ± SD = 1.85 ± 2.13 ha, range = 0.04–9.15 ha). This finding suggests the
species has a good chance of using even the smaller patches (<1 ha) with relatively
sparse host-plant abundance (<1000 ramets ha -1).
Even in areas where host-plant density decreases, adult Frosted Elfin density
may remain relatively stable if shrub cover is sparse and dominated by native
species (Albanese et al. 2007). Like some other rare butterflies in the eastern
United States (Hanula and Horn 2011), Frosted Elfin populations may be highly
sensitive to the invasion and establishment of non-native plant species, in addition
to the normal succession of open barrens habitat (Albanese et al. 2007,
Bried and Gifford 2010). Patch-use probability was about 20% lower at sites
exceeding the 16% shrub-cover threshold found by Albanese et al. (2007), but
we were unable to readily distinguish the non-native and invasive shrub component
during the course of this project. The fact that occupancy data supported
a finding based on density classes suggests that increased woody structure has
a general negative effect on Frosted Elfin population dynamics. Tree canopy is
also a strong predictor of adult population density and late-instar larval distribution
(Albanese et al. 2007, 2008), but tree cover was generally lacking from
the sites in our study sample.
Detection probability depended primarily on observer and survey date. This
is not surprising given that observer differences are often strong in butterfly
surveys and for animals in general (e.g., Bried et al. 2011, Kéry and Plattner
2007). Seasonal variation in detectability is also high in butterfly surveys (Pellet
2008), and detectability in our study dropped sharply after the first surveys
on 6 and 10 May. This date effect was likely driven by an earlier than usual
start to the flight season in 2011 along with an extended period of rainy weather
between the second and third surveys. The brood likely peaked in abundance
before or during the first couple surveys, leaving fewer butterflies and lower
species’ detectability from the third survey on. The 3 observers with higher
detection probabilities (D, N, J in Fig. 2) conducted the first two surveys, suggesting
that observer variation was influenced by the unusual phenology and
weather patterns and not just inherent differences in search image.
Management implications
This study suggests that land managers should focus on woody structure
more than lupine abundance when it comes to the Frosted Elfin. Of course,
where the Frosted Elfin and Karner Blue overlap, the federally listed species
will remain the primary conservation target, and the focus on lupine will (and
should) continue. Nevertheless, populations of both species can be severely
limited by woody encroachment, such as tree canopy that exceeds 60% cover
(Albanese et al. 2008, Grundel et al. 1998). Reducing invasions of trees (e.g.,
682 Northeastern Naturalist Vol. 19, No. 4
Bried and Hecht 2011, Pfitsch and Williams 2009) along with dense shrub
thickets (e.g., Bried and Gifford 2010, Hanula and Horn 2011) will simultaneously
benefit the Frosted Elfin and Karner Blue. Partial canopy is needed,
however, and the shade heterogeneity provided by scattered trees and low-density
native shrubs can help sustain the Frosted Elfin life cycle (Albanese et al.
2007). Intensive management of woody encroachment and invasion is well underway
in the Albany Pine Bush (APBPC 2010, Bried and Gifford 2010, Bried
and Hecht 2011), and thinning of over-abundant Pinus strobus L. (White Pine)
is recognized as a priority management need for the Saratoga Sandplains and
Rome Sand Plains recovery areas (Pfitsch and Williams 2009). These activities
targeted at rare butterflies may also have a beneficial effect on non-target
animal communities such as native solitary bees (Bried and Dillon 2012) and
shrubland birds (Gifford et al. 2010, Wood et al. 2011).
Monitoring implications
An important aspect of any species recovery program is population-monitoring
protocol. In the worst-case scenario (i.e., low detectability and low intrinsic
occupancy rate), minimum effort for adult Frosted Elfin occupancy monitoring
in habitat similar to the Albany Pine Bush may require at least 20 lupine patches
surveyed 6 times each or at least 10 lupine patches surveyed 8 times each. In the
former scenario, it would be worthwhile to increase patch replication to ≥30 if
possible. Increasing total effort beyond 30 sites × 8 surveys may provide only negligible
improvements in estimator quality. However, in recovery areas that support
fewer than 10 lupine patches, such as the contemporary Rome Sand Plains, more
surveys may be needed to compensate for the limited spatial replication.
In reality, the effort required under the worst-case scenario might exceed what
is practical. If surveys coincide with peak abundance and the observers are welltrained
and astute, then detectability should improve and the effort requirement
would decrease. We reran the simulations using the peak survey probabilities
(mean of 0.956 and 0.912) and found RMSE < 0.017 for all scenarios, suggesting
that even the smallest effort (10 sites × 4 surveys, perhaps less) should suffice.
It may be possible to predict optimal timing based on plant phenology, degreedays,
or historical surveys. When in doubt, though, we recommend assuming the
worst-case scenario or using Table 3 to decide on the most feasible option. Adult
occupancy (or patch use) is probably the most logistically and statistically efficient
state variable for monitoring Frosted Elfin populations, and declines in detectioncorrected
occupancy rate or proportion of area occupied could be used to trigger
concern and action.
Acknowledgments
Thanks to Grace Barber, Neil Gifford, Kyle Hodgson, and Emily Pipher for helping
with the butterfly surveys, and to Neil Gifford for reviewing an earlier draft of the manuscript.
Two anonymous reviewers provided comments that helped improve the manuscript
substantially. This project was inspired by recent Frosted Elfin recovery planning led by the
New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, Region 4.
2012 J.T. Bried, J.E. Murtaugh, and A.M. Dillon 683
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