A Spatially and Temporally Concurrent Comparison of
Popular Abundance Estimators for White-tailed Deer
Jacob M. Haus, T. Brian Eyler, and Jacob L. Bowman
Northeastern Naturalist, Volume 26, Issue 2 (2019): 305–324
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2019 NORTHEASTERN NATURALIST 26(2):305–324
A Spatially and Temporally Concurrent Comparison of
Popular Abundance Estimators for White-tailed Deer
Jacob M. Haus1,*, T. Brian Eyler2, and Jacob L. Bowman1
Abstract - The enumeration of Odocoileus virginianus (White-tailed Deer, hereafter, Deer)
populations is an important objective for many managers, but no consensus regarding the
most appropriate scientific methodology exists. Extensive research has been conducted
involving comparisons of multiple methods to evaluate the effectiveness of estimating demographics
of free-ranging populations; however, most fail to account for spatial or temporal
differences in their comparisons. We estimated the density of an open population of Deer on
a strict concurrent spatial and temporal scale during 3 separate 14-day periods (August 2012,
February 2013, August 2013) using 4 methods: road-based distance sampling using spotlight
surveys, FLIR surveys, and camera surveys using both the Jacobson analysis method or an
N-mixture model abundance analysis. Spotlight surveys were affordable but required substantial
effort to achieve the precision necessary for management decisions. FLIR surveys
had greater detection probabilities relative to spotlight surveys and required less effort to
achieve sufficient precision. Jacobson camera surveys appeared to overestimate Deer density
and provided no measures of precision. The N-mixture model camera surveys provided
sufficient precision and generated point estimate and detection probabilities similar to FLIR
surveys. Camera surveys were costlier and more labor intensive relative to road-based surveys.
We recommend road-based distance sampling using FLIR technology to estimate Deer
density, but managers should understand the limitations and biases associated with any density
estimate before incorporating the results into a management program.
Introduction
Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman (White-tailed Deer, hereafter, Deer) is a
species of importance to wildlife managers throughout North America (Waller and
Alverson 1997). Deer are valued for consumptive and non-consumptive recreation
alike (Conover et al. 1995), and the revenue generated through hunting-related
expenditures is the largest source of funding for state wildlife agencies (Jacobson
et al. 2010). An overabundance of deer, however, can be detrimental: degrading
forest communities (Rossell et al. 2007, Russell et al. 2001, Tilghman 1989,
Tymkiw et al. 2013), causing significant economic losses and damage to personal
property (Bissonette et al. 2008, Conover et al. 1995, Romin and Bissonette 1996),
and facilitating the spread of diseases such as Lyme disease (Rand et al. 2003) and
Chronic Wasting Disease (Williams et al. 2002).
A means for estimating Deer demographic information and monitoring population
trends over time is a necessary tool for sound Deer management (Gibbs 2000,
1Department of Entomology and Wildlife Ecology, University of Delaware, 531 South
College Avenue, Newark, DE 19716. 2Maryland Department of Natural Resources, 14038
Blairs Valley Road, Clear Spring, MD 21722. *Corresponding author - jakehaus@udel.edu.
Manuscript Editor: James Cardoza
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Jacobson et al. 1997). Such tools, however, are often limited by accuracy, reliability,
and cost (Alves et al. 2013, Jenkins and Marchinton 1969). Pellet counts
(Eberhardt and Van Etten 1956, Neff 1968), spotlight surveys (McCullough 1982,
Progulske and Duerre 1964), aerial counts (Caughley 1977, Chrétien et al. 2016,
Potvin et al. 2002), mark–recapture studies (McCullough and Hirth 1988), herd reconstruction
from harvest data (Millspaugh et al. 2009, Roseberry and Wolf 1991),
indirect distance sampling (Anderson et al. 2013, Marques et al. 2001, Urbanek
et al. 2012), and motion-triggered camera surveys (Jacobson et al. 1997, Koerth
and Kroll 2000) are methods commonly used to generate estimates, but vary in
efficiency and cost. Furthermore, habitat type may limit the both the effectiveness
and logistical feasibility of any given method (Acevedo et al. 2008, Anderson et al.
2013, Storm et al. 2011).
Many studies have attempted to evaluate the utility of these methods, but accuracy
is difficult to determine in wild populations where true abundance is unknown.
Additionally, year-to-year stochasticity in population estimation can complicate the
understanding of a method’s effectiveness through time. Researchers have attempted
to overcome such issues by generating estimates from captive Deer herds of known
abundance (McCoy et al. 2011, McKinley et al. 2006, Moore et al. 2014, Potvin and
Breton 2005, Walock et al. 1997); however, DeYoung et al. (2006) advise caution
when extending the results of captive studies to free-ranging Deer as animal behavior
may be markedly different. Studies have approached the issue of estimating demographics
of open populations by using multiple methods to generate estimates for
what is assumed the same population (Anderson et al. 2013, Drake et al. 2005, Naugle
et al. 1996, Smart et al. 2004, Urbanek et al. 2012). Due to logistical constraints,
many of the latter studies performed comparisons of estimates obtained over varying
spatial and temporal scales. Comparisons that ignore temporal effects are subject to
immigration, emigration, births, and deaths that fundamentally alter the populations
being compared (Burton et al. 2015). Additionally, a number of factors such as predation
risk, temperature, snow depth, and food availability (Beier and McCullough
1990) can vary markedly over relatively small spatial and temporal scales, affecting
movement patterns and habitat use. Failing to account for such variation can negatively
affect estimate comparisons and likely biases results.
Distance sampling via road spotlight counts remains the most commonly used
survey design because of the method’s low cost and simplicity (Buckland et al.
2001, Fafarman and DeYoung 1986, LaRue et al. 2007, Whipple et al. 1994); however,
variable detection probability, observer bias, and animal disturbance may limit
accuracy (Belant and Seamans 2000; Collier et al. 2007, 2013; McCullough 1982).
Forward-looking infrared (FLIR) equipment has been integrated into distancesampling
methods in an attempt to increase detection and limit animal disturbance
(Gill et al. 1997, Havens and Sharp 2015, La Morgia et al. 2015), but the initial cost
of the unit may negate any benefit (Belant and Seamans 2000, Focardi et al. 2001,
Wiggers and Beckerman 1993), and detection is complicated by ambient temperature
and forest cover (DeYoung 2011). Additionally, convenience sampling of road
transects has been a widely criticized study design for the potential bias associated
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with non-random transects (Anderson 2001, Anderson et al. 2013, Beaver et al.
2014, Ellingson and Lukacs 2003).
Motion- and heat-triggered trail cameras (hereafter, cameras) have steadily
gained in popularity as a survey tool with the advancement of digital technology
and the commercial availability of cameras (Cutler and Swann 1999, Jacobson
et al. 1997, Koerth and Kroll 2000). Camera surveys can be less labor intensive,
less invasive (Cutler and Swann 1999, Rowcliffe et al. 2008), and less limited
by thick vegetation, weather, or observer bias (Larrucea et al. 2007, Rowcliffe
et al. 2008) compared to other survey methods. Jacobson et al. (1997) developed
a survey method (hereafter, Jacobson method) to estimate Deer population size
by enumerating the photographic rate of adult males using uniquely identifiable
antler characteristics and extrapolating that ratio to the remaining population. The
Jacobson method has been criticized for failure to generate measures of precision
(Curtis et al. 2009) and the assumption, which may not be met, of equal detectability
among age and sex classes (McCoy et al. 2011, Moore et al. 2014). Camera
surveys maybe limited to specific seasons (McKinley et al. 2006), are subject to
variable detection rates based on landscape features (Kolowski and Forrester 2017,
Mann et al. 2015), and are highly dependent on the use of bait (Koerth and Kroll
2000), which may not be legal in some areas, may alter Deer behavior, and may
facilitate disease spread. Recent modifications to the camera survey methodology
address such limitations (Cusack et al. 2015, Gulsby et al. 2015, Weckel et al.
2011); however, such methods are more analytically intensive and not often utilized
by managers. Recently, Royle’s (2004) N-mixture model has been evaluated
as an effective alternative to the Jacobson camera method to estimate Deer abundance
(Keever et al. 2017). N-mixture models use replicated count data to generate
abundance estimates that incorporate detection probability. The model requires
assumptions that all individuals within the sampling unit have the same probability
of being detected, individuals are not counted at >1 point, and the study population
is demographically closed (Royle 2004). While N-mixture models using cameras
share many of the limitations associated with the Jacobson method, benefits include
both an estimate of detection probability, a measure of precision, no need for
unique identification of individuals, and do not necessitate the use of bait.
The drawbacks and limitations of both road-based distance sampling and camera
surveys to enumerate Deer populations have been outlined extensively in the
literature. Until a more affordable and easily applied method is available, managers
will continue to utilize current techniques despite these limitations. In order to
understand the impact on management decisions, each method should be compared
with alternative estimators in order to evaluate effectiveness (Collier et al. 2007).
Point estimates alone, however, are insufficient when evaluating the utility of any
given method to estimate demographics of an open Deer population. Our objective
was to generate demographic and density estimates using spotlight and FLIR roadbased
distance sampling, as well as camera surveys using the Jacobson method and
N-mixture models for the same population of Deer over multiple survey periods.
We evaluated method efficacy using accuracy relative to other methods, precision,
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and cost. In addition, we estimated density using strict spatial and temporal
homogeneity to meet assumptions of population closure that may have influenced
previous research.
Field-Site Description
We conducted our research on a 2000-ha section of the Green Ridge State Forest
(hereafter Green Ridge) located in eastern Allegany County, MD (Fig. 1). The study
area was located near the Stafford Ridge in the center of Green Ridge (39°36'49"N,
78°28'24"W). Green Ridge was open to public Deer hunting from 7 September
through 31 January during the study period. Late successional forests comprised
>90% of the landscape in Green Ridge. Dominant overstory species included
Quercus prinus L. (Chestnut Oak), Quercus rubra L. (Northern Red Oak), Carya
glabra (Sweet) (Pignut Hickory), Carya ovalis Sarg. (Red Hickory), Acer rubrum
L. (Red Maple), Acer saccharum Marsh. (Sugar Maple), and Quercus bicolor Willd.
(Swamp White Oak), interspersed with occasional Pinus virginiana Mill. (Virginia
Pine) and Pinus strobus L. (White Pine) (MDNR 2012). Common midstory and
understory species include Vaccinium corymbosum L. (Northern Highbush Blueberry),
Cornus florida L. (Flowering Dogwood), Smilax spp. (greenbriar), Cercis
canadensis L. (Eastern Redbud), and Sassafras albidum (Nees) (Sassafras). Green
Ridge varied in elevation from 152 m along the Potomac River to 620 m at the
Figure 1. Map of the White-tailed Deer population estimation study area in eastern Allegany
County, MD showing the network of twenty 100-ha grid cells (blue) used for camera placement.
We arranged grid cells to avoid private lands on the western portion of the study area.
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highest ridge (Evans and Gates 1997). Average temperature (1981‒2010) varied
from a winter low of -5.33 °C in January to a summer high of 31.06 °C in July (National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2013). Allegany County received
an average (1981‒2010) of 95 cm of precipitation each year (NOAA 2013). Weather
conditions during the study period did not diverge from the 30-year (1981‒2010)
monthly averages (August and February; NOAA 2013).
Methods
We conducted all survey methods during 3 separate 14-day periods (7‒20 August
2012, 1‒14 February 2013, and 7‒20 August 2013. We drove road transects
for distance sampling 12 of 14 nights. We performed spotlight and FLIR surveys
on alternating nights for a total of 6 replicates per period for each method, with 2
nights allotted for inclement weather. We maintained cameras and bait sites through
the duration of the 14-day survey periods.
Surveys began 1 hour after sunset, with start and stop locations constant across
survey nights and survey periods. The survey route followed continuous roads
throughout the study area for a total of 45 km (Fig. 2). We surveyed all drivable
roads within the study area, and all roads were low-use, minimum-maintenance
forested roads with no median and little surrounding development. A 2-person
Figure 2. Map of the Whitetailed
Deer population estimation
study area in eastern Allegany
County, MD showing the
45 km of continuous road used
for distance sampling (black)
in relation to the network of
camera grid cells (blue).
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team (driver and observer) traveled at a speed not exceeding 20 km/hr and surveyed
only the right side of the road. To avoid bias, we used the same observer for
the duration of the study. We used a 12-volt spotlight (Cyclops Solutions LLC,
Grand Prairie, TX) for spotlight surveys and a Thermal-Eye 250D Digital FLIR
device (L-3 Communications Infrared Products, Dallas, TX) for FLIR surveys
to continuously search for Deer. When we detected a Deer or cluster of Deer, we
used either the thermal signature of the Deer (Fig. 3) or a spotlight to determine
the sex and age (adult/fawn) of each individual. We defined clusters of Deer
in accordance with protocols established by Lovely et al. (2013). We recorded
distance to the original position if we observed Deer moving in response to the
approaching vehicle. We measured the perpendicular distances to the individual
Deer or Deer cluster using a laser rangefinder (± 1 m accuracy; Leica Camera
AG, Solms, Germany). We used Program DISTANCE 6.0, version 2 (Thomas
et al. 2010) to estimate density. We analyzed distance-sampling data with both
Figure 3. White-tailed Deer thermal signatures observed through a forward-looking infrared
imager in Green Ridge State Forest, MD. During the summer, (A) vascularized antler tissue
identifies adult males, and (B) body size can be used to identif y adult females with fawns.
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the conventional distance sampling model (CDS) and the multiple covariate
distance sampling model (MCDS). We used a Kestrel pocket weather meter
(Nielsen-Kellerman Co., Chester, PA) to obtain and record weather data for each
night, including temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation, and
barometric pressure. We used weather measurements as covariates in the MCDS
model, but underlying model structure was similar to CDS, and allowed for model
comparison. We performed model selection using Akaike information criterion
corrected for small sample size (AICc; Hurvich and Tsai 1989). The models with
the lowest AICc value were considered to have more support and be more parsimonious
than models(i) with ΔiAICc ≥ 2 (ΔiAICc = AICci - AICcmin; Burnham and
Anderson 2002, Posada and Buckley 2004).
We established camera sites in accordance to Jacobson et al. (1997). We divided
the study area into square 100-ha grid cells (Fig. 1) and placed a Reconyx HC600
infrared camera (n = 20; Reconyx Inc., Holmen, WI) at the center; however, we
adjusted exact placement to provide ease of access and increase likelihood of visitation
by Deer (Jacobson et al. 1997). Grid size was based on the average annual
home-range size of adult Deer (113 [SE = 18] ha) in a comparable habitat within the
Appalachian Mountain range (Randolph County, WV; Campbell et al. 2004). We
used a handheld GPS unit (Garmin Ltd., Olathe, KS) to mark locations of camera
sites. All cameras were oriented north and had vegetation and debris cleared from
the area to prevent sun glare and false triggers. We baited camera sites with 11 kg
of shelled corn placed ~5 m from the camera. During a pilot-study conducted in
July 2012, we found that photographic rates did not increase after the third day, so
we performed a 3-day pre-baiting period with cameras present prior to all survey
periods. Cameras were active for 14 days on 24-hour capture mode with a 3-minute
delay, taking 3 photographs per event over a period of 20 seconds. The pilot
study found that Deer averaged 4 to 6 minutes feeding at a bait site. A 3-minute
delay conserved battery life and reduced the amount of repeat pictures of a single
individual, while ensuring that Deer visiting the bait site without triggering the
camera was unlikely. The use of 3 photographs per event provided multiple images
of antlered males that aided in identification. We checked camera sites every third
day to change memory cards and ensure bait was constantly available throughout
the survey period.
We compiled and analyzed all photographs by camera site at the end of each
14-day survey period. We followed methods previously described by Jacobson et
al. (1997) for photograph analysis. We used distinguishable antler characteristics to
uniquely identify individual males. We calculated total counts for males, females,
and fawn images, including known repeats of individuals. We divided the number
of unique males by the number of male images to get a population multiplier
(unique-male-to-total male images). We applied this multiplier to the total images
of females and fawns to get an estimated number of unique females and fawns for
the survey area. We added those estimates to the known number of individual males
for an overall abundance estimate. We applied the abundance estimate to the known
area of the camera grid to generate a density estimate.
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N-mixture models require spatially and temporally replicated counts. We used
the same photograph data as the Jacobson method, but subset the photos to only
include images from a 2-hour period (1800–2000 Eastern Standard Time) each
night, for a total of 14 replicates at each camera location. We subset the data to
minimize the possibility of double counting individuals with repeated visits while
still capturing peak activity. We classified animals as adult male, adult female, or
fawn and constructed encounter histories for all 3 demographics. When a group of
Deer consisted of multiple individuals of the same demographic, we restricted the
count to the maximum number observed in a single photograph. This conservative
approach was necessary to reduce the probability of double counts of an individual
animal. We generated abundance estimates using package ‘unmarked’ in Program
R version 3.1.3 (Fiske and Chandler 2011).
While both camera survey methods estimate abundance of Deer, we applied
the abundance estimates for both methods to the known area of the camera grid
to generate density estimates, which is a typical practice among managers despite
the subjectivity of defining a unit of area for a free-ranging population (Foster and
Harmsen 2012). Our study used estimates from a population of unknown Deer
density, meaning we could not evaluate estimates based on accuracy alone. We
compared estimates within survey periods using point-density estimates (number
of Deer/km2), 95% confidence interval (CI) overlap, percent coefficient of variation
(CV), detection probability, and cost to evaluate the effectiveness of each method
at the management-unit scale. We concluded that methods generated different estimates
if there was no CI overlap. An estimate was considered sufficient for rough
management decisions if the CV was <25%, and sufficient for precise management
if <12.8% (Skalski et al. 2005).
Results
We did not observe a uniquely identifiable Deer at >1 camera site during any of
the 3 survey periods. CDS models were the top model in all 3 survey periods for
both spotlight (Table 1) and FLIR surveys (Table 2), so method comparisons were
performed using only the CDS models. We did not perform model averaging, as
no model containing weather parameters was competitive. FLIR surveys resulted
in greater counts of Deer clusters and greater detection probabilities (0.57, 0.45,
0.36) relative to spotlight surveys (0.51, 0.32, 0.35) in all 3 survey periods. CV
estimates for FLIR surveys were also consistently lower than those for spotlight
surveys; however, N-mixture models resulted in the lowest CV estimates and had
the narrowest 95% CI for all 3 survey periods (Table 3). We observed overlap of
all the 95% CI for FLIR, spotlight, and N-mixture density estimates in the August
2012 and February 2013 periods; however, during the August 2013 period there was
no CI overlap between spotlight and N-mixture, although both methods overlapped
with the CI for the FLIR survey (Fig. 4). Point estimates from the Jacobson camera
survey were well outside the upper CI for all other methods during the August 2012
and February 2013 periods, but within the CI estimates for the FLIR and N-mixture
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Table 1. The top 6 models for spotlight surveys in each period, including conventional distance sampling
(CDS) and 5 multiple covariate distance sampling (MCDS) models, to estimate White-tailed
Deer density in the Green Ridge State Forest, MD. AICc = Akaike’s information criterion adjusted for
small n, ω = Akaike weight, and Bp = barometric pressure.
Model Parameters AICc ΔAICc ω
August 2012
CDS 114.15 0.00 0.97
MCDS Precipitation 121.85 7.70 0.01
Temperature 124.23 10.08 0.01
BP 124.98 10.83 0.01
Precip + temp 142.12 27.97 0.00
Bp + precip 146.52 32.38 0.00
February 2013
CDS 116.14 0.00 0.40
MCDS Temperature 119.77 3.63 0.21
Precipitation 120.11 3.97 0.20
Bp 121.00 4.86 0.12
Wind speed 121.71 5.57 0.07
Precip + temp 168.23 52.09 0.00
August 2013
CDS 101.70 0.00 0.93
MCDS Bp 110.13 8.42 0.04
Precipitation 112.39 10.69 0.01
Temperature 112.65 10.95 0.01
Bp + precip 138.09 36.39 0.00
Bp + temp 139.49 37.79 0.00
Figure 4. White-tailed
Deer density estimates
(Deer/km2) for each method
by survey period for
Green Ridge State Forest,
MD.
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Table 2. The top 6 models for FLIR surveys in each period, including conventional distance sampling
(CDS) and 5 multiple covariate distance sampling models (MCDS), to estimate White-tailed Deer
density in the Green Ridge State Forest, MD. AICc = Akaike’s information criterion adjusted for small
n, ω = Akaike weight, and Bp = barometric pressure.
Model Parameters AICc ΔAICc ω
August 2012
CDS 106.96 0.00 0.94
MCDS Bp 114.64 7.68 0.06
Temperature 128.44 21.48 0.00
Bp + temp 129.61 22.64 0.00
Precipitation 139.99 30.03 0.00
Bp + precip + temp 158.21 51.25 0.00
February 2013
CDS 88.21 0.00 0.86
MCDS Precipitation 91.07 2.85 0.13
Bp 95.81 7.60 0.01
Temperature 99.08 10.86 0.00
Bp + precip 116.23 28.02 0.00
Bp + temp 125.80 37.59 0.00
August 2013
CDS 110.60 0.00 0.92
MCDS Bp 114.78 4.18 0.03
Precipitation 114.82 4.22 0.03
Temperature 115.81 5.21 0.02
Bp + precip 136.99 26.39 0.00
Bp + temp 158.21 47.61 0.00
Table 3. White-tailed Deer density estimates and measures of precision obtained via 4 survey methods
during August 2012, February 2013, and August 2013 in Green Ridge State Forest, MD.
Survey period Method Deer/km2 (SE) CV (%) 95% CI
August 2012
FLIR 6.38 (1.11) 17.4 4.29‒9.49
Spotlight 6.00 (1.57) 26.1 3.53‒10.21
N-mixture 7.16 (1.05) 14.6 5.10‒9.05
Jacobson 12.42 NA NA
February 2013
FLIR 3.33 (0.94) 28.3 1.87‒5.90
Spotlight 3.16 (1.00) 31.7 1.66‒6.00
N-mixture 4.68 (0.80) 17.1 3.22‒6.19
Jacobson 12.03 NA NA
August 2013
FLIR 8.10 (1.20) 14.8 5.98‒11.35
Spotlight 3.93 (0.86) 22.1 2.47‒6.27
N-mixture 8.16 (1.00) 12.3 6.54‒10.72
Jacobson 8.65 NA NA
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model during the August 2013 period (Table 3). Density point estimates were consistently
lowest among spotlight surveys, whereas FLIR surveys and N-mixture
models produced similar estimates in all 3 periods (Table 3).
Demographic estimates were highly variable (Table 4), and we did not detect
any pattern in the estimates of adult sex ratio between methods or survey period.
Estimates for fawn recruitment were greater for the road-based surveys than for
the camera-survey methods in the August 2012 and August 2013 periods. We were
unable to estimate demographic information for FLIR and spotlight methodologies
during the February 2013 survey period because of difficulty discerning between
sex and age due to seasonal morphological changes.
The recorded harvest within the study area during the 2012–2013 hunting season
was 2.13 Deer/km2 (MDNR 2013). Between the August 2012 and February
2013 survey periods, FLIR, spotlight, and N-mixture model estimates showed a
reduction in density of 3.05, 2.84, and 2.48 Deer/km2, respectively, while the Jacobson
method only estimated an overall reduction of 0.39 Deer/km2. However,
the recorded antlered harvest in the study area was 1.30 antlered Deer/km2 (MDNR
2013), which was identical to the observed reduction in identifiable males based on
demographic estimates generated by the Jacobson method.
Discussion
The limitations of the 4 methods presented are well established and documented
in the literature. An important caveat to our analysis is that we did not attempt to
Table 4. Estimates of adult sex ratio (females:male) and fawn recruitment (fawns/adult female) for
White-tailed Deer obtained via 4 survey methods during August 2012, February 2013, and August
2013 in Green Ridge State Forest, MD.
Survey period Method Adult sex ratio Fawns / female
August 2012
FLIR 2.7:1 0.46
Spotlight 2.0:1 0.38
N-mixture 2.6:1 0.25
Jacobson 2.5:1 0.28
February 2013
FLIRA NA NA
SpotlightA NA NA
N-mixture 2.8:1 0.44
Jacobson 3.1:1 0.63
August 2013
FLIR 2.3:1 0.46
Spotlight 2.3:1 0.74
N-mixture 2.7:1 0.27
Jacobson 2.4:1 0.36
AThe use of road survey equipment proved inadequate to reliably estimate demographic parameters
due to difficulty differentiating adult females, large fawns, and shed antlered males.
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correct or control for known limitations, but rather perform surveys in a manner
consistent with methods typically used by Deer managers. A conclusion regarding
which method generated the most accurate estimates is not possible given that we
surveyed an open Deer population of unknown abundance and demographics. Although
detection probability and the number of observed Deer clusters varied, the
number of clusters exceeded the recommended minimum of 40 clusters (Buckland
et al. 2001, Burnham et al. 1980) in all survey periods for both methods. Spotlight
surveys consistently estimated the lowest density during each survey period;
however, CI overlap suggested no difference in estimates produced by spotlight
and FLIR surveys in all 3 survey periods and no difference between spotlight and
N-mixture model estimates in August 2012 and February 2013. Density estimates
from Jacobson camera surveys differed from both distance sampling techniques
and N-mixture model estimates in the August 2012 and February 2013 survey periods
and from spotlight surveys in August 2013. During the February survey period,
FLIR surveys were similar to both camera and spotlight surveys. FLIR surveys and
N-mixture model estimates were similar throughout all 3 survey periods and appeared
to provide conservative density estimates with adequate precision compared
to spotlight and Jacobson camera surveys.
Focardi et al. (2001) found no difference in the performance of spotlight and
FLIR techniques in Dama dama L. (Fallow Deer); however, we observed a reduced
detection probability during spotlight surveys at a rate similar to that reported by
Collier et al. (2007), who determined that spotlight surveys detected 30–78% of the
Deer observed during FLIR surveys. Furthermore, habitat features (i.e., elevation,
rivers, cover type) influenced the location of transects (roads) and the distribution
and movement of the Deer population (Anderson et al. 2013, Long et al. 2010, Peterson
et al. 2017), which may have resulted in a violation of experimental design
and introduced potential bias to detection and thus density estimates (McShea et
al. 2011) in both distance-sampling methods. Montague et al. (2017), however,
found road-based distance sampling using FLIR to be a viable technique in a mountainous
region of Virginia, a habitat comparable to our study area. Precision was
not sufficient for rough management decisions (Skalski et al. 2005) for spotlight
estimates in 2 survey periods (August 2012 and February 2013) and 1 survey period
(February 2013) for FLIR surveys. The seasonal difference for both methods
between August 2012 and February 2013 is comparable to the recorded harvest for
the area, which supports past research advocating distance sampling as a means to
monitor population trends (DeYoung 2011, Fafarman and DeYoung 1986, Whipple
et al. 1994). We detected no discernible advantages of either distance-sampling
technique when estimating demographic parameters other than density. Due to the
variability both among methods and among survey periods for estimates of adult
sex ratio and fawn recruitment, we cannot make a conclusion regarding which
method may be preferable for Deer managers.
With the Jacobson camera method, the assumption of equal detectability is essential
to density estimates and is based on detection probability of individually
identifiable males. Jacobson et al. (1997) stated that bias by gender would bias
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317
estimates of Deer populations. Past research has documented such gender-specific
bias of camera surveys (Cutler and Swann 1999, Larrucea et al. 2007, Moore et al.
2014). Behavioral responses to baiting may also violate the assumption of equal
detectability (Campbell et al. 2006, Cutler and Swann 1999, McCoy et al. 2011,
Roberts et al. 2006). Furthermore, detection rates from cameras may not accurately
reflect Deer densities on the landscape (Parsons et al. 2017). Our results are in
agreement with Roberts et al. (2006) who concluded that camera surveys result in
significantly higher estimates of Deer density than road-based sampling methods
(16.5 Deer/km2 via road surveys and 36.0 Deer/km2 via cameras). The lack of
estimated sampling variances diminish the reliability of camera survey density estimates
(Dougherty and Bowman 2012, White et al. 1982) and complicate method
comparison. The lowest density estimate generated by cameras (8.65 Deer/km2;
August 2013) was similar to the FLIR survey and N-mixture estimates for that period,
suggesting the Jacobson method may be prone to overestimating Deer density
at large scales. Moore et al. (2014), however, found that camera surveys generated
lower density estimates relative to an aerial survey in Texas.
Both camera survey methods were capable of providing an estimate of demographic
parameters both pre- and post-harvest, although accuracy of those estimates
was difficult to discern. The failure of the Jacobson method to detect a reduction
in the post-harvest density estimate (February 2013) relative to the pre-harvest
estimate (August 2012) may suggest that the Jacobson method is not as sensitive
to seasonal population changes as the alternative methods. The Jacobson method
accurately estimated the reduction in antlered males due to hunting; however, we
observed an increase in the antlerless segment of the population post-harvest that
negated the reduction in antlered Deer. We detected the greatest fawn recruitment
in the February 2013 survey period, suggesting an underestimation of fawn recruitment
during pre-harvest camera surveys. We attribute the discrepancies to weaning
fawns having less interest in bait sites or not yet being mobile enough to move with
the doe, resulting in a reduced fawn detection probability during the August surveys
(Chitwood et al. 2017, DeYoung and Miller 2011, McKinley et al. 2006).
Table 5. Cost breakdown per survey method for FLIR, spotlight, and both camera surveys during
August 2012, February 2013, and August 2013 in Green Ridge State Forest, MD. Total cost sums all
expenses, while cost per survey period estimates cost assuming a 5-year life of reusable field equipment
(e.g., spotlights, remote cameras, laser range finder).
Expense FLIR Spotlight Cameras
Equipment $8769.96 $869.97 $13,399.00
Seasonal suppliesA $0.00 $0.00 $616.40
Field hours $432.00 $432.00 $864.00
Analysis hours $48.00 $48.00 $240.00
Mileage $92.00 $92.00 $192.50
Total cost $9341.96 $1441.97 $15,311.90
Cost/survey $2325.99 $745.99 $4592.70
ASeasonal supplies were not reusable (e.g., corn and camera batteries) and are differentiated from
reusable equipment costs.
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2019 Vol. 26, No. 2
Given the inability to estimate sampling variance that would allow for an
evaluation of accuracy, the lack of sensitivity to seasonal changes, and the underestimation
of pre-harvest fawn recruitment, Jacobson camera surveys do not seem
to warrant the high cost of equipment and labor (Table 5). The CI overlap between
spotlight and FLIR surveys is partially due to the relatively high variance resulting
from reduced detection probability in spotlight surveys. FLIR surveys clearly
outperformed spotlight surveys but the similarity in the methods and high cost
of the FLIR unit may dissuade Deer managers. The increased labor and mileage
costs necessary to provide sufficient precision for spotlight surveys is an important
consideration, but the added cost may be justifiable when considered the investment
needed for a long-term monitoring program. N-mixture models achieved the
greatest precision in all 3 survey periods. Similar to the Jacobson method, however,
N-mixture estimates require the high cost of cameras, bait, and labor.
Management actions should always be based on the best available science.
Road-transect surveys appeared to provide estimates of Deer density informative to
rough management practices despite violations of study design due to nonrandom
transects (LaRue et al. 2007, Morelle et al. 2012). Spotlight surveys are affordable
but require substantial effort to achieve precision. N-mixture models of abundance
appeared to be effective at estimating Deer density and provided high levels of
precision, but are computationally intensive and costly. Keever et al. (2017) found
that N-mixture models generated adequate density estimates in as little as 5 survey
nights for an enclosed population. Reductions in replicates would substantially
lower cost, but would likely reduce precision in unfenced populations with more
variable detection probabilities. Given the failure to generate estimates of sampling
variance and the disparate estimates of Deer density however, we do not recommend
managers and biologists utilize traditional camera surveys to estimate overall
density if an alternative method is practical. Camera surveys may be a useful option
in areas where roads are not abundant or do not accurately represent the habitat of
the study area, or when managers are interested in the antlered male segment of the
population only. If camera surveys are the only practicable method, we recommend
using N-mixture abundance models to analyze the photographic data instead of the
Jacobson method. FLIR surveys provided similar density estimates relative to other
methods, provided sufficient precision for rough management, required less effort
than spotlight surveys to achieve adequate precision, and were more cost effective
than camera-based survey methods. We recommend incorporating infrared technology
into road surveys to estimate Deer population parameters.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the Maryland Department of Natural Resources and Wildlife
Heritage Service and the Federal Aid in Wildlife Restoration Act for funding this project,
grant number W-61-R-23. This work was also supported by the USDA National Institute
of Food and Agriculture, Hatch project DEL00712 and McIntire Stennis DEL00672. We
acknowledge J. Cardoza and 2 anonymous reviewers who provided comments that greatly
improved this manuscript.
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2019
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